With the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, FTSE 100, DAX, FTSE 250 and RUSSELL 2000 sitting at either all-time highs or near multi-year highs it may feel like all the deals and bargains have gone. But determined stockpicking can still find undervalued gems.
This month I will take a look at a stock which I think still has tremendous value even after the recent bounce: Blackberry (NYSE:BBRY)
Whether you are a football fan or not it’s going to be hard to avoid the World Cup over the next month and forget about this being just a sports event, this is big business that can affect GDP, consumer confidence and retail figures.
Kick-off is 12th June, where the first game sees host nation Brazil plays Croatia, and ends with the final on the 13th July. You can download a pdf chart of the World Cup games here.
Those who have followed me for some years will know I am a fan of seasonality and as I have explained in previous updates, financial markets do not go up or down evenly throughout the year in a nice orderly straight line; that would be far too easy.
If we invested $10,000 in the Dow Jones on 1st November and and then taken our money out on April 30st from 1950 to date we would now have over $950,000. We would have been out of the market May until end of October each year missing a few crashes in the process.
It’s hard to believe that it is now just over 5 years since the US financial markets hit their crisis lows with the S&P500 hitting 662 and the Dow Jones 6450.
The S&P500 is up 174% with many stocks putting in gains of well over 1000% since those dark days; Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is up 3700% and Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) up 1500% to name a few.
Those who have followed me for some years know that I have been a fan of trading and investing in commodities for well over a decade and I have held numerous seminars with the commodities guru Jim Rogers.
Now unlike many I am happy to also go short or just step out of the area when I don’t see great opportunities. For the last few years I have really had less interest in commodities frankly the opportunities have been far better in stocks so why would I bother with commodities?
After last year was such a powerful year for market indices, I think 2014 will be different, with more of a pick-and-mix style of investing the best way to go.
2013 turned out to be a great a year for financial markets with the S&P500 recording a whopping gain of 30%, which was the best year since 1997. The Dow Jones Industrials closed up 26.5%, the best since 1995; and the NASDAQ was up the most, giving a 38.3% gain thanks to technology and biotech stocks having the best gains since 2009.
Regular readers will know whilst deep down I am a trend follower I will also take a contrarian view and also look for signs of beaten up stocks that are making a turnaround.
Two stocks both mentioned here before that have done extremely well for me and anyone brave enough to follow me are Citigroup (C) and AIG (AIG). Yes, both stocks would have gone broke had the US government not bailed them out, but that is the distant past and Uncle Sam is out of both and made money out of saving both companies.
Remember a few years back when the 'sure-fire' way to make money was to bet on the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China)?
Well we know when everyone knows it’s a sure thing it normally isn’t – and sure enough the BRICs have had a very rough few years. Even as the US has bounced back many emerging markets are languishing at fairly beaten up prices and investing in the BRICs has been a poor investment over the last few years.
The Royal Mail flotation (UPDATE: now listed under ticker RMG) is making headlines and many are thinking is it worth dabbling, so let me go through my thoughts here.
The Royal Mail IPO has faced allegations of being underpriced as even though the shares were eventually allocated at 330p, at the upper edge of the pricing envelope, they began conditional trading (with City traders buying and sell shares from other, before official trading begins on Tuesday) on Friday 11th at a much elevated 445p.
As we head into September and with traders returning back to their desks after the summer holidays we will start seeing trading volumes get back to normal and we have somewhat of a seasonal divergence ahead.
Let’s look at the sour one first which is the stock market. Regular readers will know I am a big follower of seasonality and as stated before it’s a guide not a guarantee
Thu, 1st Jan - * Lloyds Banking Group on Friday confirmed that it is in late-stage settlement discussions with a number of government agencies related to interbank rate setting procedures.