Wednesday, 19th June 2013

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What does the future hold for the Indian rupee?

By Ronnie Chopra

With Indian growth slowing, the currency has been hit hard. But while this benefits some parts of the economy, the impact of the US Fed decisions and upcoming Indian elections means there could be lots more different pressures on the rupee in the medium-term future.

The weakness in the rupee in 2013 has been astounding. The severity of the fall in the last few weeks has caught many by surprise with the rupee falling from the low 80s against sterling (INR/GBP) to the current level of 91.70 (on 18 June 2013), and the low 50s against the US dollar (INR/USD) to 58.60 at the time I write this.

Aim stock to watch: Falkland Islands Holdings (FKL)

By Andrew Hore

Falkland Islands Holdings (FKL) provides investors with a lower risk exposure to the potential development of oil and gas prospects in the Falkland Islands. However, the return on the investment is unlikely to be seen until 2015 at the earliest.

Last year, FTSE 250 company Premier Oil acquired a 60% stake in the Sea Lion prospect discovered by Rockhopper.

Expect GBP, CAD & AUD weakness

By Ronnie Chopra

From a purchasing power point of view, sterling above 1.50 USD seems difficult to justify and with Mark Carney taking the reins at the Bank of England from July we may already have seen sterling's 2013 year high. Carney has been a strong advocate of more quantitative easing (QE) in the UK, which would drive sterling sharply lower.

GBP/USD 
Sterling’s sharp rise against the US dollar has caught many by surprise, the currency has recovered from 1.51 USD in May to the current 1.57 USD level. However, the 1.57 level is proving difficult to cross and we won’t be surprised if the USD now begins to regain some ground and take the GBP back to below 1.55 USD over the next couple of weeks.

Emerging Markets Hurt On Fears Over Reduced Liquidity/Slowing Growth

By Ishaq Siddiqi

Fears over a reduction in global liquidity as central banks scale back easing measures sends emerging markets in a rout with slowing global growth adding to the malaise.

EM’s have been the biggest beneficiaries of loose global central bank money over the years; central banks around the world have pumped in $12trillion of extra liquidity since the financial crisis of 2008, preventing a systemic risk in the market.

All asset classes seem unloved at the moment

By Ronnie Chopra

Over the last few weeks global equity prices have fallen quite sharply, the FTSE 100 has fallen from 6875 which was reached on 22nd May (only 120 points from its all -time high set in December 1999) to the current level which is just above 6300 - an 8% fall in 3 weeks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index has fared better, albeit still over 300 points lower now than its recent record high. The US benchmark index hit an all-time high on May 29th at 15542. The Nikkei index has experienced > 20% fall from 16,000 to 12,500 in a matter of a few weeks but it has since bounced to just above 13,000.

FTSE100 Top Risers

INDEX ASK PRICE CHANGE  
TSCO 345p  (+2.71%) TRADE
DGE 1928.5p  (+2.23%) TRADE
SGE 340.2p  (+2.1%) TRADE
BA. 403.5p  (+1.97%) TRADE
AMEC 1013p  (+1.2%) TRADE

City News

London close: All eyes on tonight's Fed meeting

Thu, 1st Jan - * UK markets gave back Tuesday' slight gains as traders continued to take positions, or stay on the side lines, ahead of the all-important policy decision - and accompanying market reaction - from the US Federal Reserve due out later this evening.

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